Regression towards the Mean

A result which falls far from the mean tends to be closer to the mean during the next attempt. Failing something consecutively does not mean that the next attempt will not succeed. Attempts and successes are not linearly related.

Future is unpredictable, but there is one good news. If you are good (i.e., the mean is good enough), you will finally succeed (i.e., reach the mean). Do not give in, even if you have failed (i.e., fall off the mean) consecutively.

“Genius does not guarantee success, but it is seductive to assume that success must come from genius.”

The logic behind the “regression towards the mean” theorem is as follows. Suppose your average test score is 50. Now, let’s take a test. Suppose that you’ve got 40. If your next test scores less than 40, which is further away from the mean, your average won’t be 50. It has to be lower than 50 which contradicts to what we assume at the beginning.

Source: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow, Chapter 1 [Read the Book Review] [Read the Previous Part] [Read the Next Part].

Source: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow, Chapter 1 [Read the Book Review] [Read the Next Part].

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Book or Audiobooks?

Personally, I prefer audiobooks. It's fun, and I can listen when I'm doing something else. It also makes other activities (e.g., jogging) a lot more fun. For more detail about audiobooks, please read [this post].

There is one more reason that may encourage you to go for the audiobook version. You can get it now for FREE. Audible offers you a free trial for 14 days. Even if you get the book and cancel the subscription right away (so that you don't have to pay), you can keep the book. And, don't worry if you lost the audiobook file. Just log into audible.com. You can keep downloading the over and over again.


About the summary: It takes time to finish up a book. And, when you do, sometimes, you want to review what you learn from the book. If you do not make notes as you read, you might have to go through the book once again. This can be time-consuming when you are dealing with a book. But you can still flip through the book and locate what you are looking for

However, when the material is an audiobook, it is extremely hard to locate a specific part of content. Most likely you will have to listen to the entire audiobook once again.

This book summary will help solve the pain of having to go through the book all over again.

I am leaving out the details of the books. Most books have interesting examples and case studies, not included here. Reading the original book would be much more entertaining and enlightening. If you like the summary, you may want to get the original from the source below.