[Book] Chances and Successes -- The Drunkard's Walk Wrap-up

Although regularity can be found in social data, the future of a particular individual is impossible to predict due to

• There are infinitely many possibilities,
• Minor change can lead to a significant change in outcomes (i.e., the Butterfly Effect), and 
• People are irrational. They sometimes act against their best interest. 

For a particular action, we all owe more to the chance (i.e., luck) than what most people realize.

[Book] Past-Present Asymmetry

 “If the future is really chaotic and unpredictable, why after the event has occurred does it seem as if we should have been able to foresee them?”

It is easy to reconstruct (or explain) a present from the past. But it s virtually impossible to predict the future from the present. To reconstruct the present, we can look at the past and make up the reason which leads to the present. If we use the same approach to predict (or extrapolate) the future, before long we will end up with infinitely many possibilities. And, even if you can magically pinpoint the future, the Butterfly Effect can mess things up. A minor event from the present to future can change the future entirely. This is to say “the future is unpredictable”.

Source: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow, Chapter 10 [Read the Book Review] [Read the Previous Part] [Read the Next Part].